Loose wet avalanche activity will continue to occur this spring on all aspects. The amount of instability will vary from day to day. Recent new snow under rapid warming will almost always be problematic.

Under established melt-freeze conditions of a week or more, the amount of day to day variance of loose wet instability will depend on the degree of overnight snow surface refreeze and the rate of daytime warming. Cloud cover overnight can greatly inhibit snow surface refreeze. Follow the NWS-Reno Backcountry Weather Forecast to identify periods of expected cloud cover and for air temperature forecasts. NEXSAT next-generation satellite imagery is useful for seeing how much cloud cover occurred overnight. If cloud cover was thick and air temperature above freezing, overnight refreeze will be poor to nonexistent. If this is the case, travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.

If skies were clear the amount of refreeze will be related to air temperature. Near or slightly above freezing air temperatures under clear skies will allow for the top few inches of the snowpack to refreeze on open slopes. This superficial refreeze usually allows for a short period of good travel conditions during the early morning hours. When this is the case, the snow surface is often not refrozen in areas under forest canopy. The further and longer air temperatures drop below freezing overnight, the better the snow surface refreeze will be both on open slopes and under forest canopy.

Once a few inches or more of wet snow exists on the snow surface, loose wet avalanche problems exist.

Natural and human triggered wind slab avalanches may occur during and immediately after any late season storms. Expect a period of snowpack instability during the storm itself, then a second cycle of avalanche activity as rapid warming occurs post storm.

During the storm, use clues such as blowing snow, cornice formation, and wind pillow formation to identify where potentially unstable wind slabs exist. Look for typical signs of mid winter instability such as recent avalanche activity, wind loading, collapse, audible whumpfing sounds, and/or shooting cracks. Identify and avoid avalanche terrain where recently formed wind slabs exist.

Post storm, new snow will be very sensitive to rapid warming and incoming solar radiation. Newly formed wind slabs could be easy to trigger post storm during rapid warming.

During periods of rapid warming after new late season snowfall, storm slabs and wind slabs can transition to wet slabs. The high sun angle in late April and May allows for significantly more incoming solar radiation to affect the snowpack on NW-N-NE-E-SE aspects than what occurs during December, January, February, and March. If an active weak layer exists at the bottom of a recently formed storm slab or wind slab, rapid warming of the snow surface can increase the deformation rate of the slab adding additional stress to the weak layer below. This can cause an increase in snowpack instability. This is when natural avalanches can occur during periods of rapid warming post storm under sunny skies and light winds.