THIS AVALANCHE FORECAST EXPIRED ON February 10, 2019 @ 7:28 am
Avalanche Forecast published on February 9, 2019 @ 4:28 pm
Issued by Brandon Schwartz - Tahoe National Forest

HIGH avalanche danger is developing rapidly above and below treeline as the next wave of the current storm cycle moves into the region. Travel in or below avalanche terrain is not recommended. Please note that this forecast is valid until 7 am Sunday. The next update will occur by that time.

4. High

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Above Treeline
Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

4. High

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Near Treeline
Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

4. High

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Below Treeline
Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.
    Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.
Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slab
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Wind slabs are becoming larger in size and more widespread. Wind slabs today were easily skier triggered in wind loaded areas. The vast majority of wind slabs will exist on NW-N-NE-E-SE aspects. More isolated wind slabs may also exist in other areas where wind drifted snow is depositing, including below treeline. Large destructive avalanches are possible. Avoid travel in or below avalanche terrain.

Avalanche Problem 2: Storm Slab
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High intensity snowfall has formed storm slabs in wind protected areas near treeline and below treeline on all aspects. Storm slab avalanches will be large enough to bury or injure a person (up to size D2). Travel in or below avalanche terrain is not recommended.

recent observations

* Wind slab avalanches with 6-8" crowns were easy to intentionally skier trigger at treeline on wind loaded NW-N-NE aspects at 11 am on Carpenter Ridge (Independence Lake area).

* Snow surface cracking associated with storm slabs was occurring by 1:45 pm in wind protected areas below treeline on Carpenter Ridge (Independence Lake area).

* Multiple skier triggered avalanches were reported midday today from Incline Lake Peak (Mount Rose area) on NE-E-SE aspects. Some were wind slabs and some were storm slabs all with crown heights ranging from 3 to 8 inches.

* The mid level and deeper portions of the snowpack remain well consolidated and without problematic weak layers. Avalanche activity is expected to continue to occur at or above the old/new snow interface.

Weather and CURRENT CONDITIONS
weather summary

The next wave of the storm system is rapidly moving into the region. SW ridgetop winds are measuring gusts to 112 mph. High intensity snowfall will continue through the overnight hours with significant accumulations. Ridgetop winds and snowfall intensity are expected to taper down by tomorrow afternoon.

Weather observations from along the Sierra Crest between 8200 ft. and 8800 ft.
0600 temperature: 14 to 20 deg. F.
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: 16 to 22 deg. F.
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: SW
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: 55 mph
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: 112 mph
New snowfall in the last 24 hours: 7 to 12 inches
Total snow depth: 95 to 120 inches
Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast Produced in partnership with the Reno NWS
For 7000 ft. to 8000 ft.
Saturday Saturday Night Sunday
Weather: Cloudy. Snow. Snow levels below 7000 feet. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Cloudy. Snow. Snow levels below 7000 feet. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Cloudy. Snow in the morning, then chance of snow in the afternoon. Snow levels below 7000 feet. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Temperatures: 23 to 28 deg. F. 18 to 24 deg. F. 17 to 22 deg. F.
Mid Slope Winds: Southwest around 15 mph with gusts to 40 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 60 mph in the afternoon. Southwest 25 to 40 mph with gusts to 65 mph. West 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph decreasing to 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 40 mph in the afternoon.
Expected snowfall: 90% probability of 6 to 10 inches. 10% probability of 8 to 14 inches. | SWE = 0.25-0.50 inch. 80% probability of 14 to 20 inches. 20% probability of 18 to 24 inches. | SWE = 0.60-1.10 inches. 80% probability of 3 to 6 inches. 20% probability 6 to 10 inches. | SWE = 0.20-0.45 inch.
For 8000 ft. to 9000 ft.
Saturday Saturday Night Sunday
Weather: Cloudy. Snow. Snow levels below 7000 feet. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Cloudy. Snow. Snow levels below 7000 feet. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Cloudy. Snow in the morning, then chance of snow in the afternoon. Snow levels below 7000 feet. Chance of precipitation is 85%.
Temperatures: 19 to 24 deg. F. 13 to 21 deg. F. 12 to 17 deg. F.
Ridge Top Winds: Southwest 20 to 30 mph increasing to 30 to 45 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 80 mph. Southwest 40 to 60 mph with gusts to 110 mph. West 30 to 45 mph with gusts to 80 mph decreasing to 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph in the afternoon.
Expected snowfall: 80% probability of 4 to 12 inches. 20% probability of 12 to 20 inches. | SWE = 0.30 to 0.60 inch. 80% probability of 18 to 24 inches. 20% probability of 22 to 30 inches. | SWE = 0.65 to 1.15 inches. 90% probability of 4 to 8 inches. 10% probability 8 to 12 inches. | SWE = 0.20-0.45 inch.
Disclaimer

This avalanche forecast is provided through a partnership between the Tahoe National Forest and the Sierra Avalanche Center. This forecast covers the Central Sierra Nevada Mountains between Yuba Pass on the north and Ebbetts Pass on the south. Click here for a map of the forecast area. This forecast applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted. The information in this forecast is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.

For a recorded version of the avalanche forecast call (530) 587-3558 x258