THIS AVALANCHE FORECAST EXPIRED ON January 14, 2019 @ 6:50 am
Avalanche Forecast published on January 13, 2019 @ 6:50 am
Issued by Steve Reynaud - Tahoe National Forest

MODERATE avalanche danger continues at all elevations due to a persistent slab avalanche problem.  Large destructive avalanches remain possible today.

2. Moderate

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Above Treeline
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

2. Moderate

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Near Treeline
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

2. Moderate

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Below Treeline
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
    Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Avalanche Problem 1: Persistent Slab
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    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
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Persistent slab avalanches remain possible on NW-N-NE-E aspects at all elevations throughout the forecast region.  Weak old faceted snow that is now buried 2 to 4' deep or more under our recent storm snow is our layer of concern.  Large destructive avalanches remain possible.  This avalanche problem has been reactive to large loads in complex terrain.  Complex terrain could have multiple avalanche paths, a high percentage of terrain 35 to 45 degrees in steepness, large cornices overhead, with multiple terrain traps and trigger points.   

This avalanche problem represents a low likelihood but high consequence event.  Avalanche activity associated with this persistent slab problem would be large and most likely unsurvivable.  Previous tracks on a slope are not an indication of stability.  Choosing simple terrain, terrain without rocks and cliffs that is not capable of producing a large avalanche, remains good travel advise. 

recent observations
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*  Observations from Needle Peak (Pole Creek area) showed some wind transport from the NE/E winds along with some small wind slab formation along the most exposed ridges. 

*  Observations from Carpenter Ridge (Independence Lake area), Tamarack Peak ( Mt. Rose area), and Rubicon Peak (West Shore area) showed no obvious signs of instabilities.  The facet layer was found in some areas with limited or no unstable snowpack test results.

Weather and CURRENT CONDITIONS
weather summary

A sunny and warm day is forecasted for our region today with light to moderate East winds at the upper elevations.  The weather pattern changes on Monday with increasing clouds, wind, and the possibility of light snow.  Tuesday through Thursday we move into a wetter pattern with the chances for heavy snow as large storms become possible.

CONDITIONS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST BETWEEN 8200 FT. AND 9200 FT. IN THE LAST 24 HOURS
Weather Station Map
Weather Station Table
6am temperature: 19 to 24 deg. F.
Max. temperature: 36 deg. F.
Average ridgetop wind direction: NE
Average ridgetop wind speed: 15 to 30 mph
Maximum ridgetop wind gust: 59 mph
New snowfall: 0 inches
Total snow depth: 46 to 52 inches
Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast Produced in partnership with the Reno NWS
For 7000 ft. to 8000 ft.
Sunday Sunday Night Monday
Weather: Sunny. Snow levels below 7000 feet. Chance of precipitation is 0%. Clear then becoming partly cloudy. Snow levels below 7000 feet. Chance of precipitation is 0%. Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of light snow or flurries in the afternoon. Snow levels below 7000 feet. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Temperatures: 33 to 38. deg. F. 17 to 22. deg. F. 28 to 33. deg. F.
Mid Slope Winds: East around 10 mph. East around 10 mph East around 10 mph.
Expected snowfall: No accumulation. | SWE = none. No accumulation. | SWE = none. Little or no accumulation. | SWE = trace amounts.
For 8000 ft. to 9000 ft.
Sunday Sunday Night Monday
Weather: Sunny. Snow levels below 7000 feet. Chance of precipitation is 0%. Clear then becoming partly cloudy. Snow levels below 7000 feet. Chance of precipitation is 0%. Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow or flurries in the afternoon. Snow levels below 7000 feet. Chance of precipitation is 25%.
Temperatures: 30 to 36. deg. F. 15 to 20. deg. F. 25 to 31. deg. F.
Ridge Top Winds: East 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. East 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. East 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
Expected snowfall: No accumulation. | SWE = none. No accumulation. | SWE = none. Little or no accumulation. | SWE = trace amounts.
Disclaimer

This avalanche forecast is provided through a partnership between the Tahoe National Forest and the Sierra Avalanche Center. This forecast covers the Central Sierra Nevada Mountains between Yuba Pass on the north and Ebbetts Pass on the south. Click here for a map of the forecast area. This forecast applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted. The information in this forecast is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.

For a recorded version of the avalanche forecast call (530) 587-3558 x258