This avalanche advisory is provided through a partnership between the Tahoe National Forest and the Sierra Avalanche Center. This advisory covers the Central Sierra Nevada Mountains between Yuba Pass on the north and Ebbetts Pass on the south. Click here for a map of the forecast area. This advisory applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.

A well advertised pattern change will start to take hold today with increasing clouds this morning and snow showers possible from late morning onwards. Periods of more intense snowfall are expected Sunday night with another stronger storm system expected later in the week. Air temperatures will begin to cool today with the arrival of an arctic air mass. Daytime highs 15 to 20 deg F below normal are expected by Monday/Tuesday. Increasing westerly ridgetop winds have mixed out the recent air temperature inversion. Remote sensors above 8,000' are reporting air temperatures this morning in the low to mid 20s in the northern portion of the forecast area and mid to upper 20s in the southern portion of the forecast area.

Recent observations from around the forecast area continue to show pockets of instability present above 8,000' both near treeline and below treeline on NW-N-NE aspects where the October 19 facet layer exists. These areas are at least somewhat sheltered from the recent NE winds that scoured away the Oct 19 layer above treeline. Between 8,000' to 8,600', the Oct 19 layer is at the bottom of the snowpack sitting on the ground. Above 8,600', the Oct 19 layer sits on top of the ice mass that formed in early October. Whumpfing, collapse, shooting cracks, and poor stability test results have occurred persistently on the Oct 19 facet layer for the past few weeks. For photos, videos, and pit profiles click here. In other areas where recent NE winds scoured away the Oct 19 facet layer, at lower elevations where the Oct 19 layer is absent or only slightly faceted, or on other aspects that have received more solar radiation, snowpack stability is significantly better.

Today, pockets of instability will exist within larger areas of stable snow. Pay attention to the snowpack as you travel anticipating the possibility of significant differences from one slope to another. Evaluate each new slope carefully using feet or poles to feel for the early Oct ice mass and by digging quick hand pits to look for the soft, sugary crystals of the Oct 19 facet layer either on top of the ice mass or at ground level. Slopes 32 degrees and steeper where the Oct 19 facet layer exists remain suspect.

The bottom line:

For most areas, avalanche danger is LOW. Isolated pockets of MODERATE avalanche danger exist above 8,000' both near treeline and below treeline on NW-N-NE aspects, 32 degrees and steeper.

Brandon Schwartz - Avalanche Forecaster, Tahoe National Forest

Weather Observations from along the Sierra Crest between 8200 ft and 8800 ft:

0600 temperature:	22 to 29 deg. F.
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours:	36 deg. F.
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours:	West southwest
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours:	36 mph
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours:	51 mph
New snowfall in the last 24 hours:	O inches
Total snow depth:	8 to 20 inches

Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast - Produced in partnership with the Reno NWS

For 7000-8000 ft:
	Saturday:	Saturday Night:	Sunday:
Weather:	Partly cloudy skies with isolated snow showers in the morning. Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers in the afternoon.	Mostly cloudy skies with scattered snow showers in the evening. Isolated snow showers after midnight.	Mostly cloudy skies this a slight chance of snow showers in the afternoon.
Temperatures:	25 to 32 deg. F.	10 to 16 deg. F.	18 to 25 deg. F.
Wind direction:	W shifting to NW	NE	SW
Wind speed:	10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.	5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.	10 to 20 mph with gusts to 45 mph.
Expected snowfall:	Trace to 1 in.	Trace to 1 in.	Trace to 1 in.
For 8000-9000 ft:
	Saturday:	Saturday Night:	Sunday:
Weather:	Partly cloudy skies with isolated snow showers in the morning. Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers in the afternoon.	Mostly cloudy skies with scattered snow showers in the evening. Isolated snow showers after midnight.	Mostly cloudy skies this a slight chance of snow showers in the afternoon.
Temperatures:	26 to 32 deg. F.	5 to 12 deg. F.	18 to 24 deg. F.
Wind direction:	W shifting to NW	NE	SW
Wind speed:	20 to 30 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Winds decreasing to 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 40 mph in the afternoon.	20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.	25 to 40 mph with gusts to 70 mph.
Expected snowfall:	Trace to 1 in.	Trace to 1 in.	Trace to 1 in.