This avalanche advisory is provided through a partnership between the Tahoe National Forest and the Sierra Avalanche Center. This advisory covers the Central Sierra Nevada Mountains between Yuba Pass on the north and Ebbetts Pass on the south. Click here for a map of the forecast area. This advisory applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.


This Avalanche Advisory was published on February 17, 2010:


February 17, 2010 at 7:45 am

Early this morning, avalanche danger is LOW for all elevations and aspects. Pockets of MODERATE danger will develop below 9,500' on E-SE-S-SW aspects, 35 degrees and steeper in response to daytime warming.


Forecast Discussion:


High pressure remains in place over the forecast area. Today will see continued sunny skies, warm air temperatures, and light winds. Some cumulus cloud build up is expected to occur along the Sierra Crest again today, but this is not expected to have a significant effect on incoming solar radiation. Expect ridgetop winds to increase out of the west tonight into Thursday ahead of a weak weather system expected to affect the forecast area on Friday.

Observations:

Observations made yesterday above Cliff Lake (Desolation Wilderness area) and on Maggies Peak (Emerald Bay area) continued to show evidence of recent wet loose avalanche activity on E-SE aspects below 9,000' (photos, more info). A few wet loose avalanches have been noted in isolated areas below 9,200' on E-SE aspects around the middle and northern portions of the forecast area in the past three days. Variable snow surfaces exist ranging from mixed melt-freeze conditions in sun exposed areas to cold snow in heavily shaded areas and above 8,000' on northerly aspects. In most areas, wet snow has been limited to the top 4 inches of the snowpack. Deeper areas of wet snow have been noted around isolated rocks, cliff bands, trees, bushes, and in areas where the snowpack is shallow.

Overnight air temperatures were below freezing in most locations below 8,300' and above 9,500'. A layer of warmer air exists in between this morning with air temperatures in the mid 30s for the most part within that elevation range. The combination of clear skies overnight and near or below freezing air temperatures is expected to have allowed for a good refreeze of wet surface snow.

Avalanche Concerns:

Avalanche concerns for today continue to focus on wet snow instability. As the day progresses, human triggered wet loose snow avalanches will be the main concern with the greatest areas of instability expected below 9,500' on E-SE aspects. Although recent wet snow avalanche activity has been mostly confined to E-SE aspects, it is still possible on S-SW aspects.


The bottom line:

Early this morning, avalanche danger is LOW for all elevations and aspects. Pockets of MODERATE danger will develop below 9,500' on E-SE-S-SW aspects, 35 degrees and steeper in response to daytime warming.


Brandon Schwartz - Avalanche Forecaster, Tahoe National Forest


Weather Observations from along the Sierra Crest between 8200 ft and 8800 ft:

0600 temperature: 28 to 37 deg. F.
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: 44 to 49 deg. F.
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: Variable
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: 7 mph
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: 24 mph
New snowfall in the last 24 hours: O inches
Total snow depth: 66 to 104 inches

Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast - Produced in partnership with the Reno NWS

For 7000-8000 ft:

  Wednesday: Wednesday Night: Thursday:
Weather: Sunny in the morning, becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. Clear skies. Sunny skies.
Temperatures: 44 to 51 deg. F. 29 to 35 deg. F. 37 to 44 deg. F.
Wind direction: Variable SW W
Wind speed: Light winds Up to 10 mph after midnight. Around 10 mph.
Expected snowfall: O in. O in. O in.

For 8000-9000 ft:

  Wednesday: Wednesday Night: Thursday:
Weather: Sunny in the morning, becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. Clear skies. Sunny skies.
Temperatures: 43 to 49 deg. F. 29 to 35 deg. F. 36 to 42 deg. F.
Wind direction: Variable W W
Wind speed: Light winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Gusts to 35 mph after midnight. 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
Expected snowfall: O in. O in. O in.