This avalanche advisory is provided through a partnership between the Tahoe National Forest and the Sierra Avalanche Center. This advisory covers the Central Sierra Nevada Mountains between Yuba Pass on the north and Ebbetts Pass on the south. Click here for a map of the forecast area. This advisory applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.

The ridge of high pressure over the region will weaken today as a weather system moves onshore to the north of the forecast area. Ahead of the approaching system, ridgetop winds shifted from east to southwest last night. Remote sensors are reporting air temperatures above 7,000' in the 30s this morning. Air temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 30s to mid 40s today for areas above 7,000'. Sunny skies through today will give way to increasing clouds overnight. A chance of snow showers exists tomorrow morning across the forecast area, with the possibility for any measurable accumulation limited to areas north of I-80. Moderate speed southwest winds are expected this afternoon into tomorrow morning, followed by decreasing winds. A return to partly cloudy skies is forecast for Monday afternoon.

Observations:

Observations made yesterday on Silver Peak (Pole Creek area) revealed limited snow surface melting by mid day. On open southerly aspects between 7,000' and 8,000', a supportable snow surface with 2 to 3 inches of wet snow existed at noon. Skier triggered roller balls remained small and quickly broke apart. Widespread runnels existed in this area on all aspects and at all elevations (photo), similar to those noted on the snow surface in a variety of areas over the past few days. The presence of runnels is an indicator that preferential channels for free water drainage from the snowpack have been established. Snowpit data collected in the same area on a north aspect at 8,000' revealed a stable snowpack with a mix of supportable and breakable crust on the snow surface (pit profile). No snow surface melting had occurred on northerly aspects at noon. Over 16 inches of settlement has occurred in this area since Jan 23rd. A report from the Mount Rose area noted breakable crust conditions on NW-N aspects between 9,000' and 9,500' (more info, pit profile).

Avalanche Concerns:

Another round of clear skies and near to below freezing air temperatures last night will have allowed for a good refreeze of wet surface snow that existed yesterday. Snow surface melting is expected to occur today at low elevations on all aspects and at the mid and upper elevations on SE-S-SW aspects. Most wet snow instability is expected to remain limited to human triggered roller ball activity. A small possibility of isolated point release type wet loose snow avalanches exists on slopes 37 degrees and steeper. Recently collected and received snowpack data from around the forecast area indicates that slab avalanche activity is unlikely at this time. The biggest hazard remains secondary terrain exposures where the push of a small wet loose snow avalanche could take a person over a cliff or into a gully (terrain trap).

The bottom line:

Avalanche danger is LOW for all elevations and aspects. Small wet loose snow avalanches are unlikely but not impossible beginning late morning on slopes 37 degrees and steeper. Normal caution is advised.

Brandon Schwartz - Avalanche Forecaster, Tahoe National Forest

Weather Observations from along the Sierra Crest between 8200 ft and 8800 ft:

0600 temperature:	30 to 37 deg. F.
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours:	38 to 44 deg. F.
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours:	East shifting to southwest
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours:	19 mph
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours:	34 mph
New snowfall in the last 24 hours:	O inches
Total snow depth:	19 to 38 inches

Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast - Produced in partnership with the Reno NWS

For 7000-8000 ft:
	Sunday:	Sunday Night:	Monday:
Weather:	Partly cloudy skies.	Mostly cloudy skies.	Mostly cloudy skies with isolated snow showers in the morning. Partly cloudy skies in the afternoon.
Temperatures:	39 to 46 deg. F.	25 to 35 deg. F.	32 to 39 deg. F.
Wind direction:	SW	SW	SW
Wind speed:	Light winds becoming 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon.	15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph, increasing to 25 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph after midnight.	20 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph, decreasing to 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Expected snowfall:	O in.	O in.	0 to trace in.
For 8000-9000 ft:
	Sunday:	Sunday Night:	Monday:
Weather:	Partly cloudy skies.	Mostly cloudy skies.	Mostly cloudy skies with isolated snow showers in the morning. Partly cloudy skies in the afternoon.
Temperatures:	36 to 43 deg. F.	23 to 30 deg. F.	29 to 33 deg. F.
Wind direction:	SW	SW	W
Wind speed:	10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph, incresing to 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph in the afternoon.	25 to 35 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Gusts increasing to 50 mph after midnight.	20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Gusts decreasing to 35 mph in the afternoon.
Expected snowfall:	O in.	O in.	0 to trace in.