How to Read the Avalanche Forecast

The avalanche forecast is an essential tool for planning a safe and enjoyable trip into the backcountry. Avalanche forecasts provide information on the expected snowpack, weather, and avalanche conditions for a specific timeframe (usually 24 hours) and area. The avalanche forecast provides a starting point for terrain choices and decision making, but it cannot make decsions for you. Users have to continually assess the terrain and conditions while they travel to refine their plan and decisions. This process takes, training, skill, and experience.

The avalanche forecast is designed for people who have taken at least an avalanche awareness class or preferably an avalanche Level 1 course. We don't expect a first-time user to understand the contents of a forecast completely. This page explains the basic concepts of the forecast and how to read it.

This section summarizes what the danger is, where it is, and how you can reduce your exposure. It uses concise and basic language to describe the general picture for the day. Even if you haven't taken a formal avalanche course, this section should provide a basic and easy to understandy summary. The rest of the forecast gives more specific avalanche information you will need for more specific trip planning decisions.

This graphic provides a general overview of the avalanche danger by elevation using the North American Public Avalanche Danger Scale. It also shows the expected danger ratings for the next day. These sometimes change, so checking the forecast every day before you go out is always important. For a tutorial on danger ratings, click HERE.

Below these sections, you will find the avalanche problems for the day.  These have a series of symbols and graphics above a description to help explain the avalanche problem and help you remember it while making decisions in the field. Each Avalanche Problem ​ consists of ​4​ ​factors​ ​(type,​ ​location,​ ​likelihood,​ ​size)​. ​The combination​ ​of these factors describes​ ​the​ ​avalanche​ ​hazard.

• Avalanche Character or Type – One of 9 potential avalanche types
• Location – Where the avalanche is most likely to exist in the terrain, shown with an Aspect/Elevation diagram
• Likelihood – The chance of triggering an avalanche shown on a five-step slider graph going from "Unlikely" to "Possible" to "Likely" to "Very Likely" to "Certain"
• Size – The destructive potential of the expected avalanche shown on a four-step slider graph going from "Small (D1)" to "Large (D2)" to "Very Large (D3)" to "Historic (D4-5)"

The text in this section will include details and advice specific to the avalanche problem. This section may also include photos as examples of the problem. 

This is an optional section that forecasters may choose to use to discuss aspects of the day’s avalanche conditions that either are more detailed or may not fit into the previous sections. On some days the other sections of the forecast may cover all the details that the forecaster needs to convey. Other days the forecaster may use this section to discuss nuances such as notable snowpack observations, dynamic avalanche conditions, past avalanche cycles, or areas of uncertainty in the forecast.

Forecast centers often include a mountain weather forecast and detailed weather information at the bottom of the avalanche forecast.