THIS AVALANCHE FORECAST EXPIRED ON March 9, 2015 @ 6:48 am
Avalanche Forecast published on March 8, 2015 @ 6:48 am
Issued by Brandon Schwartz - Tahoe National Forest

Avalanche danger remains LOW for all elevations and aspects. Small loose wet avalanches remain possible in isolated areas on all aspects. Normal caution is advised.

1. Low

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Above Treeline
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

1. Low

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Near Treeline
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

1. Low

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Below Treeline
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
    Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution
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  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
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Snow from the last storm remains transitional from recent storm snow to melt-freeze in many areas. As air temperatures warm today, wet surface snow will again form on all but the most heavily shaded northerly aspects. The majority of instability today is expected to take the form of human triggered roller balls and pinwheels rather than loose wet avalanches. Isolated small loose wet avalanches are not outside the realm of possibility today on all aspects on slopes 37 degrees and steeper. Many areas below 7,500' on SE-S-SW aspects have melted out to bare ground since the last storm.

recent observations

Observations made yesterday on Silver Peak (Pole Creek area) revealed decent to good snow cover in the area on N-NE aspects as low as 7,100'. Below this elevation, snow cover quickly became very thin. Near surface facets were observed as developing in this area on N-NE aspects, but are not a problematic weak layer at this time. Snowpit data collected in the start zone of the main NE avalanche path (NE aspect, 8,280') did not reveal any evidence of instability. Old near crust facets below the thin melt-freeze crust at the base of the recent storm snow were noted as rounding and gaining strength. Snow that was cold and unconsolidated on shaded northerly aspects at 7,800' during the morning hours was observed to enter its first melt-phase around noon yesterday. At that time, skier triggered roller balls reached 8 to 12 inches in diameter prior to breaking apart. A thin breakable surface crust is likely to have formed in the area last night. This is due to refreezing of the miniscule amount of free water at the snow surface that allowed for yesterday's pinwheels. Snow cover on the SE-S-SW aspect slopes on the N side of Pole Creek held little to no snow cover below ~7,700'.

Weather and CURRENT CONDITIONS
weather summary

High pressure remains in control over the forecast area with above average air temperatures expected through Tuesday. Thin high level cloud cover is expected again today, but will have little impact on the level of incoming solar radiation. Remote sensors are reporting air temperatures this morning in the mid to upper 30s for areas 8,000' to 9,600'. Air temperatures are in the 20s on the mountain valley floors under inversion conditions. Maximum daytime air temperatures are forecast to reach the low 40s to mid 50s today for areas above 7,000'. Ridgetop winds are light out of the east this morning and are expected to remain light for most of today. For tomorrow expect continued similar air temperatures and cloud cover as today, but with a period of moderate speed east winds in the morning.

Weather observations from along the Sierra Crest between 8200 ft. and 8800 ft.
0600 temperature: 34 to 39 deg. F.
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: 51 to 59 deg. F.
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: East
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: 9 mph
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: 23 mph
New snowfall in the last 24 hours: 0 inches
Total snow depth: 31 to 46 inches
Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast Produced in partnership with the Reno NWS
For 7000 ft. to 8000 ft.
Sunday Sunday Night Monday
Weather: Sunny skies. Clear skies. Sunny skies.
Temperatures: 50 to 56 deg. F. 28 to 34 deg. F. 49 to 55 deg. F.
Winds: East Northeast East
Expected snowfall: 0 in. 0 in. 0 in.
For 8000 ft. to 9000 ft.
Sunday Sunday Night Monday
Weather: Sunny skies. Clear skies. Sunny skies.
Temperatures: 42 to 49 deg. F. 28 to 34 deg. F. 42 to 49 deg. F.
Winds: East Northeast East
Expected snowfall: 0 in. 0 in. 0 in.
Disclaimer

This avalanche advisory is provided through a partnership between the Tahoe National Forest and the Sierra Avalanche Center. This advisory covers the Central Sierra Nevada Mountains between Yuba Pass on the north and Ebbetts Pass on the south. Click here for a map of the forecast area. This advisory applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.