Avalanche Forecast published on November 8, 2017 @ 9:02 am
Issued by Brandon Schwartz - Tahoe National Forest

Early season conditions update #2 - Regular avalanche advisories will begin later this fall.

Another storm system is expected to impact the forecast area Wednesday night and Thursday. Anyone participating in over snow travel in or near avalanche terrain needs to carry and properly use companion rescue gear a well as apply avalanche avoidance training. Mellow touring on snow covered forest roads is the best bet for on snow recreation at his time.

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Below Treeline
Avalanche Problem 1: Loose Wet
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The upcoming Wednesday night/Thursday storm is expected to have fairly high snow levels. Rain on recent new snow may create some loose wet avalanches. This will generally be limited to locations above 7,000' that received several inches or more of new snow during the Nov 3 -4 storm event.

Avalanche Problem 2: Wind Slab
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Strong to gale force S to SW ridgetop winds combined with new snow Wednesday night/Thursday will allow for the possibility of another round of wind slab formation. This is expected to be limited to areas above 8,000' given the current snow level forecast of 7,500' to 8,000'. New wind slabs are expected to be 1 foot thick or less. The most problematic wind slabs are expected in areas where ground level anchors are covered by either new snow from the Nov 3 -4 storm event or by patches of old snow left over from last winter.

 

recent observations
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The Nov 3 - 4 storm event deposited little to no new snow in some locations while 12 to 16 inches of new snow deposited above 7,000' in other portions of the forecast area. The greatest accumulations occurred above 7,000' along the Sierra Crest from the northern boundary of the forecast area down to somewhere in between Ellis Peak and Rubicon Peak. New snow amounts were dramatically less in the southern and eastern portions of the forecast area where many locations picked up just 3 inches above 7,000'. This new snow was deposited on bare ground in most areas. A few leftover snow patches from last winter exist in isolated areas on upper elevation northerly aspects.

In those areas that received a foot or more of new snow Nov 3 - 4, southerly aspects have undergone melt-freeze and northerly aspects have become wind affected while escaping melt. On the northerly aspects, the snowpack is showing increasing amounts of stratigraphy with thin surface wind slabs on top of less dense recent new snow in near and above treeline areas.

Weather and CURRENT CONDITIONS
weather summary

Storm system moving through the forecast area Wednesday night/Thursday. Clearing and cooling on Friday. Short lived high pressure on Sat. Next storm expected to effect the area on Sunday/Monday.

Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast Produced in partnership with the Reno NWS
For 7000 ft. to 8000 ft.
Wednesday Wednesday Night Thursday
Weather: Mostly cloudy skies. Snow level 8,000'. Mostly cloudy skies with a chance of rain through the night. A chance of snow after midnight. Snow level 8,500' with possible temporary lowering to 7,000'. Mostly cloudy skies with a chance of rain and snow. Snow level 8,500' with possible temporary lowering to 7,000'.
Temperatures: 46 to 51 deg. F. 36 to 41 deg. F. 42 to 47 deg. F.
Mid Slope Winds: S S SW
Wind Speed: 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph. Gusts to 55 mph. 20 to 35 mph with gusts to 70 mph. 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 75 mph.
Expected snowfall: 0 0 Up to 2
For 8000 ft. to 9000 ft.
Wednesday Wednesday Night Thursday
Weather: Mostly cloudy skies. Snow level 8,000'. Mostly cloudy skies with a chance of rain through the night. A chance of snow after midnight. Snow level 8,500' with possible temporary lowering to 7,000'. Mostly cloudy skies with a chance of rain and snow. Snow level 8,500' with possible temporary lowering to 7,000'.
Temperatures: 43 to 48 deg. F. 33 to 38 deg. F. 40 to 45 deg. F.
Ridge Top Winds: S shifting to SW SW SW
Wind Speed: 25 to 35 mph, shifting and increasing to 30 to 45 mph in the afternoon. Gusts to up 85 mph. 35 to 55 mph with gusts to 90 mph. 40 to 55 mph decreasing to 30 to 50 mph in the afternoon. Gusts to 90 mph.
Expected snowfall: 0 Likely up to 3 in.|Small chance 3 to 5 1 to 4
Disclaimer

This avalanche advisory is provided through a partnership between the Tahoe National Forest and the Sierra Avalanche Center. This advisory covers the Central Sierra Nevada Mountains between Yuba Pass on the north and Ebbetts Pass on the south. Click here for a map of the forecast area. This advisory applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.

For a recorded version of the Avalanche Advisory call (530) 587-3558 x258