Avalanche Forecast published on November 21, 2018 @ 9:03 am
Issued by Steve Reynaud - Tahoe National Forest

Early Season Conditions Update #1

Our first series of winter storms for the season are approaching our region today through Saturday.  In areas that receive the most snowfall, isolated wind slabs and minor loose wet avalanches could become possible.  Practice safe travel protocols when in or near avalanche terrain.  Daily avalanche advisories will begin as the snowpack builds.  

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Above Treeline

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Near Treeline

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Below Treeline
Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slab
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Wind slabs could become possible in the heaviest wind drifted areas in near treeline and above treeline terrain mainly above 8000'.  Strong to gale force S/SW winds are forecasted throughout the incoming storms.  In areas that receive the most snow, wind slabs could form on NW-N-NE-E-SE aspects.  Look for areas of blowing snow, cornice formation, and wind pillows.  

Avalanche Problem 2: Loose Wet
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As snow levels fluctuate and rise throughout these incoming storms, small loose wet avalanches could become possible due to rain on new snow.  These loose wet avalanches are expected to be in isolated areas that receive the most snow and be small in size. 

Forecast discussion

Excitement is high with the approaching storm and the kick off of our winter season.  Even after this series of storms, our snowpack will be shallow with a minimal amount of useable snow for recreation in most areas.  Many hazards and obstacles will exist throughout the region including: exposed trees, rocks, bushes, open water, creek crossings, etc.  Use caution during this early season to avoid injury.

This is the time to get all of your backcountry gear out and in good working condition.  Get out with your friends and partners in the new snow to practice avalanche rescue so you will be prepared for the coming winter.  

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Weather and CURRENT CONDITIONS
weather summary

Our first series of winter storms for the season are expected today through Saturday morning.  Snow levels have trended higher as warm air advection increases.  Above 8000' exists the best chances for 1 to 2' of snow along the Sierra Crest by Saturday morning.  Below 8000', more uncertainty exists with a mix of rain and snow down to lake level.  Gusty S/SW winds will increase to strong to gale force on Thursday through Friday.  Sunday through Tuesday will dry out with another round of wet and windy weather expected mid to late next week.

Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast Produced in partnership with the Reno NWS
For 7000 ft. to 8000 ft.
Wednesday Wednesday Night Thursday
Weather: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow in the afternoon. Cloudy. Rain in the evening. Snow through the night. Mostly cloudy. Snow likely.
Temperatures: 39 to 44 deg. F. 25 to 30 deg. F. 31 to 36 deg. F.
Mid Slope Winds: South 15 to 25mph. Gusts up to 35mph increasing to 45mph in the afternoon. South 15 to 25 with gusts to 50mph. Southwest 15 to 25 with gusts to 50mph increasing to 25 to 35 with gusts to 65mph in the afternoon.
Expected snowfall: Expected: up to 3 in , Possible: 3 to 5 Expected: 5 to 11 in, Possible: 10 to 16'' Expected: 1 to 4 in, up to 1
For 8000 ft. to 9000 ft.
Wednesday Wednesday Night Thursday
Weather: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow in the afternoon. Cloudy. Rain in the evening. Snow through the night. Mostly cloudy. Snow likely.
Temperatures: 39 to 44 deg. F. 25 to 30 deg. F. 31 to 36 deg. F.
Ridge Top Winds: South 15 to 25. Gusts to 35 increasing to 45mph in the afternoon. South 15 to 25 with gusts to 50mph. Southwest 15 to 25 with gusts to 50mph increasing to 25 to 35mph with gusts to 65mph.
Expected snowfall: Expected: up to 3 in, Possible: 3 to 5 Expected: 5 to 11 in, Possible 10 to 16 Expected: 1 to 4 in, Possible: up to 1
Disclaimer

This avalanche advisory is provided through a partnership between the Tahoe National Forest and the Sierra Avalanche Center. This advisory covers the Central Sierra Nevada Mountains between Yuba Pass on the north and Ebbetts Pass on the south. Click here for a map of the forecast area. This advisory applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.

For a recorded version of the Avalanche Advisory call (530) 587-3558 x258