THIS AVALANCHE FORECAST EXPIRED ON March 23, 2019 @ 6:59 am
Avalanche Forecast published on March 22, 2019 @ 6:59 am
Issued by Andy Anderson - Tahoe National Forest - Sierra Avalanche Center

The avalanche danger should remain LOW today unless more warming occurs than forecasted. In that case, loose wet avalanche problems could develop.

1. Low

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Above Treeline
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

1. Low

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Near Treeline
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

1. Low

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Below Treeline
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
    Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Avalanche Problem 1: Loose Wet
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  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
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    Very Large
    Large
    Small

Increasing cloud cover and winds should help limit the amount of warming that occurs today. This limited warming combined with minimal recent snow and a strong overnight refreeze should prevent widespread significant loose wet avalanche activity. If any loose wet instabilities do form, they should remain small in most places. However, there is a chance that some could have consequences in areas with terrain traps. If the cloud cover takes longer to develop or temperatures climb higher than forecasted, loose wet instabilities could become larger and more widespread. 

Monitor conditions while traveling in the backcountry. If the snow starts to warm up, step off your gear or your sled and see how deep the wet snow is. Once it gets deeper than your ankles it is a good time to move to a colder aspect.

recent observations

* Yesterday observations from Elephants Back, Tamarack Peak, and Brockway Summit showed shallow new snow (1-4 inches) resting on a melt-freeze crust. At the lower elevations, this crust was breakable and at upper elevations, this crust was firmer.

* Despite some windows of sunshine no wet snow instabilities were reported. 

* No signs of significant wind slab instability were reported.

Weather and CURRENT CONDITIONS
weather summary

Periods of sun this morning should give way to increased cloud cover by late morning/midday as the next low-pressure system moves into the region. This small storm is forecasted to bring some snow starting this afternoon/evening and lasting through tomorrow. It will depart the area tomorrow and a period of calmer weather is expected on Sunday. The forecast calls for a return of stormy weather early next week. 

Weather observations from along the Sierra Crest between 8200 ft. and 8800 ft.
0600 temperature: 20 to 25 deg. F.
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: 29 to 35 deg. F.
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: SW
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: 43 mph
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: 10 to 20 mph
New snowfall in the last 24 hours: 0 inches
Total snow depth: 110 to 157 inches
Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast Produced in partnership with the Reno NWS
For 7000 ft. to 8000 ft.
Friday Friday Night Saturday
Weather: Partly cloudy then becoming cloudy. Chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Snow levels below 7000 feet. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Cloudy. Snow likely in the evening, then snow after midnight. Snow levels below 7000 feet. Chance of precipitation is 85%. Mostly cloudy. Snow likely in the morning, then chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Snow levels below 7000 feet. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Temperatures: 37 to 42 deg. F. 23 to 28 deg. F. 33 to 39 deg. F.
Mid Slope Winds: Southwest around 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Southwest around 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the evening becoming light. Light winds becoming southwest around 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon.
Expected snowfall: 90% probability up to 1 inch. 10% probability no accumulation. | SWE = less than 0.10 inch. 80% probability of 2 to 6 inches. 20% probability of 6 to 8 inches. | SWE = 0.15-0.25 inch. 60% probability of 1 to 3 inches. 40% probability of 3 to 5 inches. | SWE = up to 0.15 inch.
For 8000 ft. to 9000 ft.
Friday Friday Night Saturday
Weather: Partly cloudy then becoming cloudy. Chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Snow levels below 7000 feet. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Cloudy. Snow likely in the evening, then snow after midnight. Snow levels below 7000 feet. Chance of precipitation is 85%. Mostly cloudy. Snow likely in the morning, then chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Snow levels below 7000 feet. Chance of precipitation is 65%.
Temperatures: 32 to 38 deg. F. 21 to 26 deg. F. 28 to 34 deg. F.
Ridge Top Winds: Southwest 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph increasing to 45 mph in the afternoon. Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
Expected snowfall: 90% probability up to 1 inch. 10% probability up to 0 inches. | SWE = less than 0.10 inch. 80% probability of 2 to 6 inches. 20% probability of 6 to 8 inches. | SWE = up to 0.30 inch. 60% probability of 1 to 4 inches. 40% probability of 4 to 6 inches. | SWE = up to 0.15 inch.
Disclaimer

This avalanche forecast is provided through a partnership between the Tahoe National Forest and the Sierra Avalanche Center. This forecast covers the Central Sierra Nevada Mountains between Yuba Pass on the north and Ebbetts Pass on the south. Click here for a map of the forecast area. This forecast applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted. The information in this forecast is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.

For a recorded version of the avalanche forecast call (530) 587-3558 x258