THIS AVALANCHE FORECAST EXPIRED ON April 1, 2019 @ 6:46 am
Avalanche Forecast published on March 31, 2019 @ 6:46 am
Issued by Brandon Schwartz - Tahoe National Forest

LOW avalanche danger early this morning will increase to MODERATE avalanche danger at all elevations as the day progresses. A loose wet avalanche problem will develop in response to daytime warming.

2. Moderate

?

Above Treeline
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

2. Moderate

?

Near Treeline
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

2. Moderate

?

Below Treeline
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
    Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Avalanche Problem 1: Loose Wet
  • Type ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

Conditions were ideal last night for snow surface refreeze with air temperatures below freezing and clear skies for radiational cooling. As daytime warming occurs, snow surface melt will become sufficient for loose wet avalanches. The vast majority of loose wet avalanches today are expected to be human triggered and occur on E-SE-S-SW-W aspects. Loose wet avalanches will occur to a lesser extent on NW-N-NE aspects, mainly at low and mid elevations. Avalanche size is expected at D1 with size D2 possible in isolated areas.

Timing and route options are key to managing this avalanche problem during backcountry travel in avalanche terrain. Steep sun exposed slopes will become increasingly unstable during the late morning through afternoon hours. Get into and out of sun exposed avalanche terrain early in the day. If you find yourself late for the ideal timing of travel, encountering surface wet snow with rollerballs and/or pinwheels, exercise route options that reduce avalanche hazard via low angle terrain choices.

recent observations

* Three size D1 human triggered loose wet avalanches were reported yesterday from SE aspect, above treeline terrain on Mt. Rose proper.

* Unconsolidated recent storm snow, yet to be affected by melt lingers on steeper N aspects at the mid and upper elevations.

* Breakable to supportable melt-freeze crust exists on the snow surface in sun exposed areas, including on low angle northerly aspects.

* No wind slab avalanches were reported yesterday.

* The deeper snowpack remains well bonded with instabilities occurring relatively close to the snow surface.

Weather and CURRENT CONDITIONS
weather summary

Sunny skies continue today before precipitation returns to the region on Monday. Maximum daytime air temperatures are expected to warm well above freezing today at all elevations. Ridgetop winds are forecast to shift from E to SW today, remaining light to moderate in speed. Cloud cover will begin to increase tonight. Snow levels are forecast to rise tomorrow with light precipitation in the afternoon. Periods of light to moderate precipitation are expected through Thursday before a warmer, stronger storm impacts the region Friday into Saturday.

Weather observations from along the Sierra Crest between 8200 ft. and 8800 ft.
0600 temperature: 24 to 28 deg. F.
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: 34 to 42 deg. F.
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: E
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: 23 mph
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: 37 mph
New snowfall in the last 24 hours: 0 inches
Total snow depth: 113 to 162 inches
Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast Produced in partnership with the Reno NWS
For 7000 ft. to 8000 ft.
Sunday Sunday Night Monday
Weather: Sunny. Snow levels below 7000 feet increasing to 7000 feet in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 0%. Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy. Snow levels 8000 feet. Chance of precipitation is 0%. Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Snow levels 8500 feet. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Temperatures: 47 to 53 deg. F. 28 to 33 deg. F. 45 to 51 deg. F.
Mid Slope Winds: Light winds. Light winds. Light winds becoming southwest around 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon.
Expected snowfall: No accumulation. | SWE = none. No accumulation. | SWE = none. No accumulation. | SWE = less than 0.10 inch.
For 8000 ft. to 9000 ft.
Sunday Sunday Night Monday
Weather: Sunny. Snow levels below 7000 feet increasing to 7000 feet in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 0%. Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy. Snow levels 8000 feet. Chance of precipitation is 0%. Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Snow levels 8500 feet. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Temperatures: 42 to 50 deg. F. 26 to 31 deg. F. 40 to 48 deg. F.
Ridge Top Winds: Southwest around 10 mph. Southwest around 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Southwest 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph increasing to 45 mph in the afternoon.
Expected snowfall: No accumulation. | SWE = none. No accumulation. | SWE = none. 70% no accumulation. 30% probability up to 1 inch. | SWE = less than 0.10 inch.
Disclaimer

This avalanche forecast is provided through a partnership between the Tahoe National Forest and the Sierra Avalanche Center. This forecast covers the Central Sierra Nevada Mountains between Yuba Pass on the north and Ebbetts Pass on the south. Click here for a map of the forecast area. This forecast applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted. The information in this forecast is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.

For a recorded version of the avalanche forecast call (530) 587-3558 x258