This avalanche advisory is provided through a partnership between the Tahoe National Forest and the Sierra Avalanche Center. This advisory covers the Central Sierra Nevada Mountains between Yuba Pass on the north and Ebbetts Pass on the south. Click here for a map of the forecast area. This advisory applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.


This Avalanche Advisory was published on March 28, 2007:


March 28, 2007 at 0:00 am

Forecast Discussion:


This advisory was posted on Wednesday, March 28th, 2007 at 6:59 am

The bottom line: Near and above treeline, avalanche danger is MODERATE with isolated pockets of CONSIDERABLE on wind loaded SW-W-NW aspects 35 degrees and steeper. All sun exposed areas below 8,000' will be subject to the possibility of warming instability today. Below treeline, avalanche danger will become MODERATE in sun exposed areas, 35 degrees and steeper as daytime warming occurs.

The series of weak weather disturbances that brought cloud cover and snow showers to the forecast area yesterday afternoon and overnight will move off to the east this morning. This will bring clearing skies to the area today. Ridgetop winds shifted to moderate easterly overnight and are expected to continue through the day today. A warming trend will begin today and is expected to continue through the rest of this week.

An additional 4-7 inches of new snow fell with shower activity yesterday. Storm totals this morning are running 16-22 inches of new snow along the Sierra Crest, with around 12 inches of storm snow reported in the Mount Rose area. Small soft slab natural avalanches were observed all along the Sierra Crest yesterday, appearing to have occurred Monday night or early yesterday morning. Yesterday throughout the forecast area, small human triggered soft slab avalanches occurred on N-NE-E aspects, with widespread human triggered sluff activity in non wind affected areas. Continued blowing snow and wind loading were observed in most areas throughout the day. Shooting cracks were reported both along the Sierra Crest and in the Mount Rose area above and below treeline.

The overnight wind shift to moderate easterly will continue the processes of wind transport and wind loading by scouring new snow from N-NE-E aspects above treeline and depositing it on SW-W-NW aspects today. This will create unstable slab formation in wind loaded areas on SW-W-NW aspects today. Snowpack failure that occurs today is expected at the new snow/old snow interface or within the new snow. Very isolated natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are probable near and above treeline on SW-W-NW aspects, 35 degrees and steeper.

Warming air temperatures will bring the possibility of snowpack instability to sun exposed areas, especially below 8,000' as the day progresses. Areas protected from NE-E winds that receive large amounts of solar radiation will likely see natural roller ball activity today. Some areas such as cross loaded SE gullies will be very prone to warming instability today.

The bottom line: Near and above treeline, avalanche danger is MODERATE with isolated pockets of CONSIDERABLE on wind loaded SW-W-NW aspects 35 degrees and steeper. All sun exposed areas below 8,000' will be subject to the possibility of warming instability today. Below treeline, avalanche danger will become MODERATE in sun exposed areas, 35 degrees and steeper as daytime warming occurs.

SAC is very grateful of everyone who was involved in the SAC Ski Day fundraiser at Sugar Bowl. With the financial support of everyone who purchased SAC lift tickets and the organizational and marketing support of those who made the event possible, we were able to raise just over $10,000 for our operating budget. This will allow us to finish operations this spring and have funding for operations during the first two months of next winter. Thank you to all contributors, Sugar Bowl Ski Area, and Snowbomb.com!

Brandon Schwartz, Avalanche Forecaster

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Today's Central Sierra Weather Observations:
0600 temperature at Sierra Crest (8,700 feet): 14 deg. F
Max. temperature at Sierra Crest past 24 hours: 23 deg. F
Average wind direction at Sierra Crest past 24 hours: Northwesterly to easterly
Average wind speed at Sierra Crest past 24 hours: 25 mph
Maximum wind gust at Sierra Crest past 24 hours: 70 mph
New snow fall at 8,200 feet past 24 hours: 4-7 inches
Total snow depth at 8,200 feet: 78 inches

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Mountain Weather Forecast For Today:
Partly cloudy to sunny skies.
Temperature forecast for 8,000 to 9,000 feet: 22 to 28 degrees F.
Ridgetop winds forecast for the Sierra Crest: Northeasterly at 25-40 mph with gusts to 60 mph.
Snowfall expected in the next 24 hours: 0 inches

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2 Day Mountain Weather Forecast:
7000 to 8000 Feet:
Today, partly cloudy in the morning, becoming sunny. Daytime highs 30 to 36 degrees F. Northeast winds at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Tonight, clear skies with overnight lows 22 to 25 degrees F. Northeast winds at 10 to 20 mph. Thursday, sunny with daytime highs 43 to 48 degrees F. East winds at 15 to 25 mph, decreasing in the afternoon are expected.

Above 8000 Feet:
Today, partly cloudy in the morning, becoming sunny. Daytime highs 22 to 28 degrees F. Northeast winds at 25 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Tonight, clear skies with overnight lows around 25 degrees F. Northeast winds at 25 to 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Thursday, sunny with daytime highs 37 to 44 degrees F. East winds at 20 to 40 mph, gusting to 50 mph. Winds are expected to decrease in the afternoon.


The bottom line:


Andy Anderson - Avalanche Forecaster, Tahoe National Forest


Weather Observations from along the Sierra Crest between 8200 ft and 8800 ft:

0600 temperature: deg. F.
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: deg. F.
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours:
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: mph
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: mph
New snowfall in the last 24 hours: O inches
Total snow depth: inches

Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast - Produced in partnership with the Reno NWS

For 7000-8000 ft:

  Wednesday: Wednesday Night: Thursday:
Weather:
Temperatures: deg. F. deg. F. deg. F.
Wind direction:
Wind speed:
Expected snowfall: O in. O in. O in.

For 8000-9000 ft:

  Wednesday: Wednesday Night: Thursday:
Weather:
Temperatures: deg. F. deg. F. deg. F.
Wind direction:
Wind speed:
Expected snowfall: O in. O in. O in.