This avalanche advisory is provided through a partnership between the Tahoe National Forest and the Sierra Avalanche Center. This advisory covers the Central Sierra Nevada Mountains between Yuba Pass on the north and Ebbetts Pass on the south. Click here for a map of the forecast area. This advisory applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.


This Avalanche Advisory was published on April 17, 2007:


April 17, 2007 at 0:00 am

Forecast Discussion:


The bottom line: Near and above treeline the avalanche danger is LOW. Isolated pockets of MODERATE avalanche danger may form on sun-exposed, recently wind loaded NW-W and on sun exposed cross loaded SE aspects, 35 degrees and steeper if significant sunshine reaches them today. Below treeline, avalanche danger is LOW.

Temperatures should begin to drop, the winds should continue to increase, and the cloud cover should become more widespread as a dry, cold front moves into the the area today. By tonight the air temperatures should be more like winter than spring. There is very little moisture associated with this system; however, the cold, low pressure system following it on Thursday has the potential to drop a few inches of snow on the forecast area. The winds have already shifted to the southwest and started to increase. They should be most intense this afternoon and evening. Cloud cover is forecasted to increase through today.

Increased cloud cover and cooler temperatures should help prevent the new snow from warming as much today. The northeast winds scoured most of N-NE-E aspects down to the old hard melt-freeze crust and redepositted the newly fallen snow onto the NW-W-SW-S-SE aspects. Yesterday this new snow experienced rapid warming. Last night it should have refrozen. It will take a few more melt freeze cycles for this new snow to be assimilated into the homogeneous melt-freeze spring snowpack. This process is not likely to happen over the next few days as the temperatures stay cold and the sky stays cloudy. In many areas this new snow has a well developed surface crust that should prevent much wind transport of the new snow today. The late April sun is intense and could still cause pockets of wet snow instabilities form today on the sun exposed aspects where the cloud cover is patchy. Recently wind loaded NW-W and cross loaded SE aspects where new snow is sitting on the old melt-freeze snowpack would be the most susceptible to forming instabilities today. The S-SW aspects that also receive the most solar radiation have melted so much that new snow has been transported onto bare ground. No significant snowpack instability is expected in these areas due to the presence of excellent anchoring.

Natural avalanche activity is unlikely today. Snowpack instability is expected to be limited to human triggering of roller balls, pin wheels, and small loose point-release sluffs on slopes that see significant solar radiation today. If the clouds become thicker and more widespread these instabilities will become more isolated. If the clouds do not build as forecasted these instabilities will become more widespread and the instances of instability will be larger and involve more snow.

The bottom line: Near and above treeline the avalanche danger is LOW. Isolated pockets of MODERATE avalanche danger may form on sun-exposed, recently wind loaded NW-W and on sun exposed cross loaded SE aspects, 35 degrees and steeper if significant sunshine reaches them today. Below treeline, avalanche danger is LOW.

We will raffle a BCA backpack, beacon, shovel, and probe package on April 17th as a way to say thanks to everyone who has sent us a donation in the mail or via Pay Pal this season. All individuals who have donated $10 or more to SAC are automatically entered in this raffle. Thanks to all of our sponsors, the ski days, and everyone who has donated funding this winter, we have met our operating budget for this season and have a start on next year's funding. For more details about our financial situation please click here.

Andy Anderson , Avalanche Forecaster
Today's Central Sierra Weather Observations:
0600 temperature at Sierra Crest (8,700 feet):
31 deg. F
Max. temperature at Sierra Crest past 24 hours:
52 deg. F
Average wind direction at Sierra Crest past 24 hours:
East till 1pm yesterday then it shifted to the southwest
Average wind speed at Sierra Crest past 24 hours:
35 while from the east then decreasing to 30 mph from the southwest.
Maximum wind gust at Sierra Crest past 24 hours:
68 mph
New snow fall at 8,200 feet past 24 hours:
0 inches
Total snow depth at 8,200 feet:
54 inches
Mountain Weather Forecast For Today:
Partly cloudy with a chance of osolated snow showers this afternoon
Temperature forecast for 8,000 to 9,000 feet:
37 - 43 degrees F.
Ridgetop winds forecast for the Sierra Crest:
Southwest 30 - 45 mph, gusting to 85 mph
Snowfall expected in the next 24 hours:
less than 1 inch
2 Day Mountain Weather Forecast:

7000 to 8000 Feet:
Today, partly cloudy skies with daytime highs 43 to 49 degrees F. There is a chance of isolated snow showers developing this afternoon. Southwest winds at 30 to 45 mph. Tonight, mostly cloudy skies with scattered snow showers. Colder with overnight lows around 21 degrees F. West winds at 25 to 35 mph. Wednesday, partly cloudy skies with a slight chance of snow showers. Daytime highs 28 to 34 degrees F. Northwest winds at 20 to 30 mph.

Above 8000 Feet:
Today, partly cloudy skies with daytime highs 37 to 43 degrees F. There is a chance of isolated snow showers developing this afternoon. Southwest winds at 30 to 45 mph with gusts to 85 mph. Tonight, mostly cloudy skies with scattered snow showers. Colder with overnight lows 11 to 17 degrees F. West winds at 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Wednesday, partly cloudy skies with a slight chance of snow showers. Daytime highs 20 to 26 degrees F. Northwest winds at 20 to 30 mph.


The bottom line:


Andy Anderson - Avalanche Forecaster, Tahoe National Forest


Weather Observations from along the Sierra Crest between 8200 ft and 8800 ft:

0600 temperature: deg. F.
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: deg. F.
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours:
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: mph
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: mph
New snowfall in the last 24 hours: O inches
Total snow depth: inches

Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast - Produced in partnership with the Reno NWS

For 7000-8000 ft:

  Tuesday: Tuesday Night: Wednesday:
Weather:
Temperatures: deg. F. deg. F. deg. F.
Wind direction:
Wind speed:
Expected snowfall: O in. O in. O in.

For 8000-9000 ft:

  Tuesday: Tuesday Night: Wednesday:
Weather:
Temperatures: deg. F. deg. F. deg. F.
Wind direction:
Wind speed:
Expected snowfall: O in. O in. O in.