This avalanche advisory is provided through a partnership between the Tahoe National Forest and the Sierra Avalanche Center. This advisory covers the Central Sierra Nevada Mountains between Yuba Pass on the north and Ebbetts Pass on the south. Click here for a map of the forecast area. This advisory applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.

The winds have shifted back to the southwest ahead of a low pressure system that should move into the forecast area tonight. This system should bring increased cloud cover, cooler temperatures, continued southwest winds and a chance for a little more snow tonight and tomorrow. The forecast calls for 2-5 inches of snow in the Sierra north of Lake Tahoe with lesser amounts farther south. Snow showers and winds should decrease tomorrow afternoon as this system moves out of the area.

We neither made nor received any new observations yesterday. However, observations from across the forecast area continue to show a layer of weak, sugary crystals near the bottom of the snowpack (the Oct. 19th facet layer- photo). Snowpit tests in the Deep Creek (video) area and on Carpenter Ridge (video) this week showed that this layer remains weak. In other areas including Incline Lake Peak, Cold Stream Canyon, Silver Peak, and Mt. Tallac, these tests showed a strengthening trend in this layer. All of the recent observations indicate that the strength and distribution of this layer remains variable. However, the strong well consolidated snow above the facets makes failure of this layer due to human-triggering unlikely.

Human-triggered avalanche activity remains unlikely today; however, it is not impossible. Isolated areas where the weight of a person could break the facets mentioned above may still exist on sheltered, NW-N-NE aspects above 8000 ft. In the unlikely event that avalanche activity does occur due to failure of this layer, the resulting avalanches will release without warning with crowns of 2-4 ft deep. These large avalanches would have dire consequences for those who triggered them. The uncertainty surrounding this layer's strength and distribution make stability evaluations on slopes with this layer unreliable and difficult. For these reasons continued caution in the backcountry is advised.

The bottom line:

LOW avalanche danger exits at all elevations and on all aspects. LOW danger does not mean no danger. Isolated, deep-slab instability is unlikely but not impossible near and below treeline on NW-N-NE aspects above 8,000 ft. Use normal caution when travelling in the backcountry.

Andy Anderson - Avalanche Forecaster, Tahoe National Forest

Weather Observations from along the Sierra Crest between 8200 ft and 8800 ft:

0600 temperature:	26 deg. F.
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours:	36 deg. F.
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours:	East shifting to the southwest after midnight
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours:	15-25 mph
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours:	52 mph
New snowfall in the last 24 hours:	O inches
Total snow depth:	33-54 inches

Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast - Produced in partnership with the Reno NWS

For 7000-8000 ft:
	Saturday:	Saturday Night:	Sunday:
Weather:	Mostly cloudy	Cloudy with a chance of snow showers	Cloudy with a chance of snow showers in the morning. Snow should decrease in the afternoon.
Temperatures:	27-37 deg. F.	15-22 deg. F.	24-31 deg. F.
Wind direction:	Southwest	Southwest	South
Wind speed:	10 mph	10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph	up to 10 mph
Expected snowfall:	O in.	up to 2 in.	up to 2 in.
For 8000-9000 ft:
	Saturday:	Saturday Night:	Sunday:
Weather:	Mostly cloudy	Cloudy with a chance of snow showers	Cloudy with a chance of snow showers in the morning. Snow should decrease in the afternoon.
Temperatures:	27-32 deg. F.	14-19 deg. F.	20-27 deg. F.
Wind direction:	Southwest	Southwest	South
Wind speed:	10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph	10-15 mph with gusts to 30 mph	10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph
Expected snowfall:	O in.	up to 2 in.	up to 2 in.